Despite wide spread fears of a ‘scrooge’ Christmas for many due to rising unemployment, the CIPD’s autumn Labour Market Outlook survey predicts that private-sector job creation will more than offset public-sector job cuts in the final quarter of 2010.
The research, published in partnership with KPMG, suggests a likely pre-Christmas jobs surge in the private sector which will create a positive balance of +11. This means that more employers are planning to increase rather than reduce their number of job roles.
Although this is the third consecutive quarter which, luckily for the coalition government, revealed a positive balance, the job market is not completely out of the woods. John Philpot, chief economic adviser of the CIPD said of the jobs surge,
“Signs of not only sustained but also increasing buoyancy in private sector job prospects are encouraging, especially since some other forward-looking economic and labour market indicators have been subdued of late. What remains to be seen is how much of this good news is merely a pre-festive-season surge in private sector jobs or a sustained improvement that will continue to offset large scale public sector cuts.”
Further to Philpot’s guarded comments of employment activity next year, the survey revealed that expected average pay settlements over the next year will be 1.5%, which suggests that a necessary rise to above 2% is a long way off. Thus, due to the current high rate of inflation, we should prepare ourselves for the possibility of a number of stretched incomes next year.